The annual symposium in Wyoming looks set to attract a great deal of attention again as hot economic issues and policy options are being fiercely debated among experts. Against this background, we have updated our view on central bank policy.
Leading indicators suggest global economic activity remains weak following what has been a very lackluster recovery. Headline inflation looks set to rise towards the end of the year while core inflationary pressures remain modest for now.
October once again lived up to its reputation as a dangerous month for equity markets. Our expert, Johan Gallopyn, examines the causes and indicates the impact on the bond, foreign exchange and commodities markets.
This year’s Jackson Hole conference was rather disappointing in the sense that it didn’t deliver much out-of-the-box thinking with regards to monetary policy. US policymakers, meanwhile, highlighted that the case for a second rate hike has become stronger.
The disappointing recovery following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis has brought to life Alvin Hansen’s thesis of the late 1930s. Hansen was wrong. But he was wrong in way he still might be right after all.