Following many years of weak activity, the world economy is now advancing at a solid pace. Confidence among firms and households suggests this should continue in the second half of the year. And despite earlier fears about protectionism, global trade growth has seen clear signs of acceleration in recent months.
Our global economic activity indicator suggests that growth remains subdued, in line with the IMF’s latest outlook report. That said, we are witnessing early but encouraging signs of acceleration in recent months.
Unsurprisingly, with the Fed moving closer to its first rate hike since 2006 and the ECB set to announce more stimulus in December, many observers are stating that the only way for the USD is up. Perhaps they are right. However, more USD strength should not be taken for granted.
China is holding its party congress starting October 18th. While statements are likely to remain vague, the symbolic value of the meeting carries great weight. The meeting will reveal both more information about Presidents Xi’s own priorities and a better gauge of where Chinese economic policy is heading.
With little in the way of news coming from the central banks and few new developments in Brexit or the trade negotiations between the US and China, in April all the attention was on company results. Our expert, Johan Gallopyn, analyses the events in the equity, bond, currency and commodities markets.
The resurgence of the trade dispute, central banks, Italy, OPEC, etc. - numerous events affected the market in June. Our expert, Johan Gallopyn, outlines the implications for the equity, bond and currency markets over the past month.